Explaining UMNO’s Downfall Post GE14 and GE15: The Strengthened Convergence Between Two Cleavage Structures
Abstract
UMNO's electoral defeat in 2018 and 2022 facilitated a transformation in the Malaysian political landscape. While the party’s defeat could be ascribed to conventional factors, including narratives of elite corruption linked to its leadership and internal factionalism; however, another significant factor that contributed to UMNO’s remarkable downfall was the cleavage structure that shifted away from the party which therefore eroded their political support. The article seeks to demonstrate the erosion of UMNO’s influence among the Malay electorates, particularly in its traditional strongholds of rural parliamentary constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia due to modifications in the cleavage structure. The analysis of the 2013, 2018, and 2022 general elections indicated that UMNO ceded votes to the Islamic party, PAS and the newly formed Malay party, BERSATU, which were partners of the Pakatan Harapan opposition coalition in 2018. The outcomes of the 2022 general elections revealed a further decline in support for UMNO among Malay electorates, attributed to the merger between PAS and BERSATU, to establish a perceived Malay-Muslim coalition in Perikatan Nasional. This article argues that UMNO lost its monopoly among the Malay electorates due to the strengthened convergence between the two cleavage structures of ethnicity and religion. The convergence was facilitated by UMNO's promotion of Islamisation, its normalisation of political cooperation with PAS, and the party’s inability to compete effectively with BERSATU which ended UMNO’s one-party dominance in Malaysia.
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