The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy: Evolution and Future Prospects

Abstract

In 2017, the U.S. government adopted the Indo-Pacific concept to guide its strategy toward Asia. This initiative emerged from a decade of increasing U.S. engagement with military allies and strategic partners in the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The primary objective of the Indo-Pacific strategy is to strengthen political and military ties between the United States and countries within this expansive area while countering China’s growing influence. This paper will examine the progress of the U.S. National Security Strategy toward Asia in the 21st century and evaluate its possibilities for President Donald Trump’s second administration. We will revisit the theoretical framework of offensive realism theory and its prospects for the rising competition between the United States and China. We argue that the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will continue to advance in the coming years, primarily through close cooperation with India, a key U.S. strategic partner. However, contrary to the expectations of the offensive realism, Washington will not lead a military balancing coalition in Asia to contain Beijing. Instead, the U.S. government will likely demand more responsibilities from its Asian allies, particularly Japan, requiring a greater commitment to maintaining a favourable regional balance of power.