Forecasting Natural Rubber Price in Malaysia by 2030

  • Nor Farah Hanim Binti Mohamad Norizan School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM)
  • Zahayu Binti Md Yusof School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM)
Keywords: natural rubber price, forecasting, measurement forecasting error


Natural rubber (NR) has recently become one of Malaysia's most important economic sectors. Despite, the price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 changes frequently. That is why it is important to develop a NR price forecasting model. Because there was a significant time lag between making output decisions and the actual output of the commodity in the market. The aim of this study is to determine the time series pattern for natural rubber price in Malaysia within 1995 until 2020 and to forecast the natural rubber price in Malaysia for 10 years ahead. The data used is from year 1995 until 2020 that were obtained from Malaysian Rubber Board (MRB). This study also used univariate forecasting like Naïve with Trend, Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Winter and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Then, the measurement error is used to determine the best method to forecast the future data. The measurement error that used in this study are Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error and The Theil Inequality Coefficient. Result: The natural rubber price in Malaysia showed a trend pattern. Then, ARIMA is used to determine the forecast of natural rubber price for next 10 years since it has the lowest measurement error. Conclusion: There are volatility in the price of natural rubber in Malaysia over the next 10 years.

Abstract views: 27 , PDF downloads: 15


Download data is not yet available.


Arias M & van Dijk P (2019) What Is Natural Rubber and Why Are We Searching for New Sources? Front. Young Minds, 7:100. doi: 10.3389/frym.2019.00100.

Burger, K., & H. P. Smit. (2000). Long-Term and Short-Term Analysis of the Natural Rubber Market. Department of Econometrics, Economic and Social Institute, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije University, De Boolean 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Burger, K., Smit H. P. & Vogalvang, B. (2002). Exchange rates and natural rubber prices, the effect of the Asian crisis. 10th EAAE Congress: Exploring Diversity in the European agri food system.

Byerlee, D. (2014). The Fall and Rise Again of Plantations in Tropical Asia: History Repeated? Land. 3. 574-597. 10.3390/land3030574.

David W. G. (2016). Time Series Components. The School of Business, Portland State University. Crude Palm Oil Prices,

Dontigney, E. (2014). The Manufacturing Process of Rubber. Retrieved from

Fox J & Castella J-C (2013) Expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in Mainland Southeast Asia: what are the pros-pects for smallholders? The Journal of Peasant Studies, 40(1):155–170.

Ismail Z, Abu N & Sufahani S (2016). New Product Forecasting with Limited or No Data AIP Conference Proceedings 1782 050009.

Jamil Wee, Siti Murni Wee & Singaravelloo, Kuppusamy. (2018). Income targets and poverty of rubber smallholders in four states of Malaysia. Planning Malaysia Journal, 16. 10.21837/pmjournal. v16.i5.440.

Jit Yang Lim. (2002). An Evaluation of Alternative Forecasting Models for Natural Rubber Prices, Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Curtin University of Technology, Australia

Khin A. A. (2011). Econometrics forecasting models for short term natural rubber prices. Saarbrcken, Germany: Lambert Academic Publishing.

Khin, A. A., Chong, E. C., Shamsudin, M. N., & Mohamed, Z. A. (2008). Natural rubber price forecasting in the world market. Proceeding of the Agriculture Sustainability through Participative Global Extension AGREX08, Putrajaya, Malaysia.

M.L. Nur Hazirah, A. Shri Dewi & A. Hussin (2016). An Econometric Analysis of Natural Rubber Market in Malaysia: International Journal of Environmental & Agriculture Research (IJOEAR),2.

Mad Nasir Shamsudin & Fatimah Mohd Arshad. (2000). Short Term Forecasting of Malaysian

Malaysian Rubber Board (2020). A monthly publication of the Malaysian Rubber Board.

Md Zakir Hossain. (2006). ARIMA model and forecasting with three types of pulse prices in Bangladesh.

Mohamad Najib Abdul Ghafar (1999). Penyelidikan Pendidikan. Skudai: Penerbitan Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.

Nyaka Ngobisa AIC, Zainal Abidin MA, Wong MY. et al. (2013) Neofusicoccum ribis associated with leaf blight on rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in Peninsular Malaysia. Plant PathologyJournal, 29(1): 10–16.

Oghenekome, U.O. Natural rubber, Hevea brasiliensis (Willd. ex A. Juss.) Müll. Arg, germplasm collection in the Amazon Basin, Brazil: A retrospective. Econ Bot 58, 544–555. .

Raju, K. V. (2016). Instability in natural rubber prices in India: An empirical analysis. Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(2), 24-28.

Sang, W. C., Sriboonchitta, S., Rahman, S., Huang, W. T., & Wiboonpongse, A. (2012). Modeling volatility and interdependencies of Thai rubber spot price return with climatic factors, exchange rate and crude oil markets.

Swetha, D. V. and Rani, K. D. (2014). Effect of Natural Rubber on the Properties of Bitumen and Bituminious Mixes. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 5(10), 9-21.

Wen, Y., Wang, Y., Zhao, K. & Sumalee, A. 2017. The Use of Natural Rubber Latex as a Renewable and Sustainable Modifier of Asphalt Binder. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, 18(6), 547-559.

Hyndman, R.J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2016). Forecasting: Principles and practice, an online text book. Retrieved from Accessed on 12.11.2016.

ANRPC (2009). Trends of natural rubber price. Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Malaysia.
How to Cite
Mohamad Norizan, N. F. H. and Md Yusof, Z. (2021) “Forecasting Natural Rubber Price in Malaysia by 2030”, Malaysian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities (MJSSH), 6(9), pp. 382 - 390. doi: